Part Two
Armchair pundits (I’m one) have argued that it makes no difference who John Mitchell chooses for the France match; the result is a foregone conclusion, like every encounter since March 2018.
This is why it matters: two years ago at HQ England scraped home 38-33. There have been far tighter results than that in the 2020s; skin-of-the-teeth time.
Mitchell must still feel the weight of history on his shoulders. Simon Middleton paid with his head for the Red Roses’ loss to the Black Ferns at two RWCs, and Mitchell has nothing like Middleton’s past record to rely on (30 wins on the trot and umpteen 6N wins). Any loss he suffers would be seen as damning.
That is why he has been carefully shuffling his cards, introducing new faces to ensure the future.
Policy
Many voices have suggested he will pick his team according the opposition’s style. That sounds very unKiwi like.
He is a man who knows how he wants his side to play (the key word from the start was “faster!”). He will be perfectly aware of the other lot’s strengths and weaknesses, but won’t adjust his team simply to negate the strengths.
Key players like Bourdon Sansus or Vernier will be met with the same watchful eye, whoever is chosen to face them.
Experience
This quality is invaluable. My favourite example remains the 2003 men’s team, the only English one to gain a world crown. They were dubbed Dad’s Army. They knew each other’s game inside out, just like several members of the current Red Roses.
It’s a feature that the perennial champions, New Zealand, can only envy. Their geographical isolation hinders them from contesting strings of test matches. A player winning her 20th cap is celebrated for her excellence and durability.
A squad picked last October contained one player, the co-captain, Ruahei Demant, with more than 40 caps (41). Twelve had topped 20 caps, none 30. Yet they have won six world crowns. Now they are aware of the scale of competition; they have lost to Canada, France, England and, thunder-clap, Ireland (twice!).
A big-time temperament is worth its weight in gold.
Yet I suspect Mitchell is no great respecter of age (despite his own 60 years). He can view his squad more dispassionately than an English-born equivalent. That’s why I don’t see a secure future for its oldest members, Mo Hunt, Emily Scarratt and Marlie Packer. He’s well aware of their outstanding records and potential contributions to success, but will weigh each against the merits of her rivals – most obviously Hunt/Lucy Packer, Scarratt/Meg Jones, Marlie Packer/Sadia Kabeya.
Double Target
We all need four eyes each, fixed on the last round of the 6N and the World Cup in August. Mitchell will reflect this in his choices for Saturday’s game. He’ll expect them to win, even if they are put through the mangle a few times – one Ménager try at least?
He may yet find room to expose more players to the tensions of the big occasion with his choice of bench players.
I offered my starting XV in Part One:
1 Botterman 2 Atkin-Davies 3 Muir 4 Aldcroft 5 Ward 6 Feaunati 7 Kabeya 8 Matthews 9 L. Packer 10 Aitchison 11 Macdonald 12 Heard 13 Jones 14 Dow 15 Kildunne
I was rash enough to add a bench:
16 Cokayne 17 Clifford 18 Bern 19 Galligan 20 Talling 21 Hunt 22 Harrison 23 Rowland
(Of course, he and we still await the latest reports from the medical staff)
But he might take the opportunity to add less familiar names to that second list. From the 6N squad he could add (fitness permitting):
May Campbell for Cokayne; Lilli Ives Campion for Galligan; Abi Burton for Talling; Flo Robinson for Hunt; Helena Rowland for Harrison and Mia Venner for Rowland.
Much depends on how many of the 32 places in Mitchell’s ideal RWC squad are still up for grabs. Like most expert coaches, he will have firm opinions about his ideal selection, but keep an open mind about adjustments.
Numbers
The maximum squad size for the RWC remains 32, allowing for injury and illness. This contrasts with the men’s equivalent figure of 33.
At the 2021(2022) World Cup the England squad consisted of 19 forwards and 13 backs. Mitchell has stated his preference for an 18:14 split in favour of forwards. In my view he may yet play safe and swifch to 19:13 – a choice of safety first or sticking to his policy of open play, making greater demands on the backs. A fascinating unknown.
This leads directly to:
Disappointments
These are the constant downside of selection to major tournaments. And these days they add up to three: the 6 Nations, WXV and the World Cup.
As England’s playing strength has widened over the past few years – through contracts and the reformed PWR – so the number of players invited to training sessions has increased. Middleton had more than 40 on board a few years ago; Mitchell has followed suit. But the number of players permitted at each tournament remains pretty consistent, so rejection is an experience they have to face. Very tough, especially when a thumbs-up and a thumbs-down divide a pair of team-mates.
This is where the staff need to offer all the psychological support they can.
Bald Facts
France were far from impressive in Parma. The Italian pack drove them back an uncomfortable number of times, but penalties conceded were a major reason for the hosts’ defeat.
Les Bleues still haven’t built a bench strong enough to match the Red Roses. For all the reasons I’ve scrabbled together, I can’t see a French win.
Current 6N standings
It was Ireland who were kind enough to prevent France gaining a try bonus in Belfast (15-27). Les Bleues preferred asking Morgane Bourgeois to pot for goal to ensure victory, hence England’s 1- point lead in the table (20-19).
HQ
The RFU have been very quiet about the likely attendance. In the past they’ve been happy to keep us up-to-date with latest ticket sales. This time they’re offering Red Rose kits at reduced prices instead (70% off!).
I’ve expressed my concern before that the wonderful attendance of 58,498 two years ago has not been threatened since.
Roll up, roll up! All the fun of the fair!
