The biggest drama still awaits. The three best rugby sides in the world will compete over the next three weekends. It’s only a year since they met up at the World Cup.
A reminder: after thrashing Wales 55-3 in their quarter-final New Zealand scraped home by a combined four points against France then England.
England have returned to their winning ways. Indeed, New Zealand are the only side to beat them since France’s stunning one-point win in Grenoble in 2018. For France the one stumbling- block has remained England.
No doubt a few bookies and plenty of English optimists will have the Red Roses as favourites once more. But glance at the titanic struggles between the All Blacks and Ireland, and France and the Springboks in Paris to see what could well happen in the WXV.
It’s fascinating to see how similarly the English and the French are approaching the new WXV adventure.
First, there is the burden of the long journey out, then the process of acclimatising.
The French flew out on 8 October via Singapore. Did they earn brownie points by completing their trip with Air New Zealand?
Both groups met in a large room with screens and display boards clarifying the route ahead, and the responsibilities each player would have in preparing herself. The on-screen lay-out for the three games was amusingly similar.
Both the medics and the physios have had a central role to play in explaining, then carrying out the adjustments required.
England
First concern, the inevitable absence of leading players; that sadly will be the case with almost every side in the competition. At least the Red Roses have grown accustomed to playing without Emily Scarratt, Leanne Infante, Poppy Cleall and Zoe Harrison. The absence of Sadia Kabeya is important too. For a few seasons now England have been short of expert open-sides to compete with Marlie Packer. Kabeya was filling that gap nicely.
Second, the ridiculous pickle the RFU got itself and the squad into by choosing a new head coach who was not available and has no direct knowledge of the squad of 30. So the WXV will act as an awkward and delaying halfway house between the departure of Simon Middleton and the next RWC.
At least Louis Deacon is intent on widening the squad’s skill levels, good as they were under the previous regime. That is a sensible approach to different times.
If England fail to beat New Zealand in round three on 4 November, it won’t make the task of beating them on a future occasion any easier.
France
The Black Ferns have the highest regard for les Bleues. They know they got through that semi- final by the skin of their teeth. One element they won’t forget in a hurry was the fury of the French tackling. It’s likely to be on a similar level next weekend.
I still feel the absence of Caroline Drouin from the No 10 slot will be central to the outcome.
She was pivotal to so many parts of the French game-plan: her kicks out of hand and off the tee, her service to her backs, her ability to profit from any tiny weakness in the opposition’s alignment, her relentless defence – she had those all mastered.
Whoever takes her place, and in all probablity it will be Carla Arbez, has to shoulder the responsibility. But will that include the place-kicking too?
Annaëlle Deshayes, Romane Ménager and Mélissande Llorens are other important missing figures. In that respect they match both England and New Zealand. And like Allan Bunting, the co-coaches have been prepared to throw a half dozen new faces into the mix. It’s as if their eyes are fixed on the World Cup, with the imminent WXV just a bump in the road.
Their highly anticipated clash with the hosts begins early on Saturday morning.
New Zealand
They have the undoubted advantage of playing a home tournament (just as England will in two years’ time). But their ongoing problem has been to find opposition strong enough to keep their own standards high.
Since the devastating European tour of 2021 they have enjoyed an unbeaten run of sixteen matches. It includes recently beating Australia twice (50-0 and 43-3), Canada 52-21 and USA 39-17. None of those three sides could quell the open attacking style of play Allan Bunting inherited from Wayne Smith and enhanced.
Whether they will be able to reap the same benefits against better aligned defences is another matter. And – the reverse of that coin – will they be able to hold strong attacking forces in check? The French love the off-loading game as much as they do.
I come to the business of selection later, but if all New Zealand’s new faces took the field, they would comprise five new front-rowers, two loose-forwards, one No 10 and four outside backs. That’s a heap of inexperience, but a wonderful chance for them to stake a claim for a place in any future squad (that is, for a trip to England).
The debutants have shown up well in the Aupiki, but is that an adequate proving-ground for top-level rugby?
Take your Pick
Inevitably both the Black Ferns and les Bleues can be error-prone; theirs is a risk-taking approach. It will be interesting to see whether England throw off dull care and join in the fun. They earned a poor reputation at the RWC for relying too heavily on forward power, especially the sequence of well-placed kick, line-out and driving maul; try to either Amy Cokayne or Lark Atkin-Davies.
Their last game before flying out didn’t show them in their best light either, but better to fall short of perfection before the big occasion. They are luckier than France in the sequence of their games. They can get the rust out of their system against the Wallaroos; the Maple Leafs will provide a stern challenge; then comes a pseudo-Cup Final at Mount Smart.
France v NZ is the hot ticket in round one.
Selection
One of the fascinating details about WXV will be the decisions the selectors make about who plays and when.
The structure is quite different from an RWC, where things don’t get serious till the knock-out stages.
In the WXV three fixtures in three weeks means none can be taken lightly. So in theory the same XV could start in all three. There you might claim that England and France have a slight advantage: their players are used to the rigours of weekly league matches over a long season.
With a squad of only thirty, selectors couldn’t ensure that all corners were covered for all eventualities. For example, the Black Ferns have nominated only three lock forwards, Charmaine Smith (back from a lengthy absence), Chelsea Bremner and Maia Roos. Bunting has to be sure he has competent alternatives to slip in if needed.
I didn’t enjoy England needing to use Marlie Packer at No 8 against Canada in the second match. Where once there was an abundance of talent available, now it is reduced. If we assume that Alex Matthews is now fully fit, then England will still have Zoe Aldcroft and Sarah Beckett as alternatives. But the tournament is throwing up problems for managements they have rarely faced before.
