While the competition will be as tense and dramatic as usual, the 2025 version acts as a pointer towards even bigger events in the World Cup.
More of the same? I fear so.
But one heartening feature of last year’s competition was the narrowing of margins in the fifteen results.
The proof (in descending order): 78, 48, 46, 40, 36, 31, 23, 21, 21, 10, 7, 6, 3, 2, 2
To summarise: only one win by above 50 points; five in single figures. And of course most of the higher scores came from the big beasts, England and France.
Sadly it doesn’t solve the problem of the same two teams dominating the scene. Even when one of the other four does well, it is unlikely to claim the runners-up position. The last time that happened was in pre-Covid 2019, when Italy scraped ahead of France at the eleventh hour, or later.
But the narrowing of standards is undeniable: in 2019 winning teams passed 50 points five times.
Three Straws in the Wind
1 WXV
WXV has already proved a valuable addition to the calendar. For Ireland it was the vehicle to a spectacular advance.
2 The Celtic Challenge
Like the WXV, but on a more limited scale, it is proving a vital link in the rise to full international level. In its second extended season it’s provided more players with the chance to show their prowess and catch the eye of selectors. Several have been added to the three extended squads.
Each of the three unions rightly insisted on its own approach, based on national needs. It has worked to Ireland’s advantage. Since they have fewer players committed to English PWR clubs, they could pick large numbers of test players in their two provincial franchises; hence their ongoing success.
It was equally important for the SRU and WRU to discover talent from native sources. They are the players most in need of higher-level competition.
With Sean Lynn the new man in charge in Cardiff, we may see new additions to the familiar Cymru line-up.
3 The Latin Cup
In its second year the Latin Cup still looks to me like an unfinished product. It needs a refit similar to the CC, which doubled its participating teams in its second year. The LC involves only four franchises, two Italian, two Spanish.
It means a very brief competition, just two weekends see the job done.
Looking forward
If there can be little doubt about the eventual winners, the fascination is seeing how the other five positions work out. Even Les Bleues will have to scrap to retain their customary second place. Their big test comes early: they face Ireland in Belfast in the first round.
Adding to the excitement and uncertainty is the presence of two new head coaches, Fabio Roselli (Italy) and Sean Lynn (Wales). Both have considerable experience in this field; neither can be sure he has cast past shortcomings aside.
Next, can Ireland maintain their encouraging progress? That clash in Belfast will reveal much. Even a (narrow) loss could put wind in Irish sails.
Their renaissance has come abruptly. Last year it was very close between them and the Scots: one point (10/9), thanks to one try-bonus. The Celtic Challenge has proved a huge benefit. Most of the likely test team has been engaged in a tournament where the only losses the Wolfhounds and the Clovers suffered were against each other. Scott Bemand has plentiful options on hand.
There are still outspoken Irish critics of the status quo caused by the IRFU’s intransigence, including lack of funding. But within the women’s squad the outlook must be bright. Could they possibly reach second place? It’s exactly a decade since the second of their outright 6N wins.
The Scots know they have a chance of making a positive statement in Round One too; they face Wales in Edinburgh.
Bryan Easson will have to make do without players like Coreen Grant (injured), but he noted how fine players were being excluded through sheer competition. Even back in the days when Scotland could win the (then) Home Championship (1998!), it’s hard to believe they were ever so well stocked with talent.
The big unknowns are Wales.
For many of us the most fascinating detail is how Sean Lynn adjusts from leading an (almost) all- conquering club side to taking on a national squad that has really been in the toils.
The general state of rugby in Wales is dire. Warren Gatland has admitted that when he returned to tend the men’s team in 2022, he realised he was merely “plugging the dam”.
The women’s squad is on the mend, but if Lynn manages to equal the exploits of the Scots, that will be a major echievement.
For the French one central onfield problem has been lack of continuity. They can build the most wonderful moves and score magical tries, but there is an uncertainty: will my neighbour link or drive? All too often the player driving in is supported a fraction too late. That was very noticeable in the Australia game in Vancouver.
Their two home matches take place in La Rochelle (Scotland) and Brive-La-Gaillarde (Wales). They happen to be a repeat of the two matches played against the same opponents in 2017. They’ll be hoping for the same results.
By rights Les Bleues should have little difficulty in retaining their second place, but doubts linger. Manaé Feleu stated simply their target is to win every match, including a World Cup final. That will need a far more clinical approach to the game than we have seen from either the coaching staff or the players. At the highest level ‘taking a chance’ can have dire consequences as often as bringing ‘the greatest try ever seen’.
Italy – since they joined the 6N in 2007 the Azzurre have gained one second place, one third and two fourths. That shows the resurgence Fabio Roselli has to achieve. Italian rugby has not advanced the way I hoped it would. For all the extravagant play they produce, they still fail to last a full 80 minutes.
The elite game is now reduced in effect to three big clubs, Valsugana (Padua), Colorno (Parma) and Villorba (Treviso). That helps to ensure familiarity on the field, but reduces nationwide competition to a worrying degree. Their start could hardly be more challenging, away to England at a venue never before used for a women’s 6N match, the LNER Community Stadium, York.
The way they survive that will help determine how they progress further.
Conclusion
England to win by a street. But the rest of the world will be looking on with great interest as the World Cup looms ever closer. Australia, Canada and New Zealand will be assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the teams they will face in the pool games. That leaves the knock-out phase to bring its own dramas.
Lead photo shows: Six Nations Coaches (L-R), Italy: Fabio Roselli, England: John Mitchell, Scotland: Bryan Easson, Wales: Sean Lynn, France: Gaëlle Mignot and David Ortiz and Ireland: Scott Bemand pose with the trophy at the launch of the 2025 Guinness Women’s Six Nations Championship at Tower Bridge in London
