Fixtures
Saturday 1 March: Saracens v Harlequins, StoneX Stadium, KO 15.00, TNT
Sunday 2 March: Gloucester-Hartpury v Bristol Bears, Queensholm, KO 15.00 TNT and BBC iPlayer
It’s no surprise that the tightest run-in to the finals we have yet known gives all four clubs the chance of ultimate victory. All have match-winners capable of turning the tide in their favour, so it may be best to rely on past evidence for our forecasts.
First comes home advantage. That is why clubs have been trying to squeeze every possible point out of their games. The odd bonus here or there makes all the difference.
A glance at the abbreviated table below reveals certain facts:
The gap between first and fourth is nearly three 5-pointers wide. That shows the challenge facing Bears.
Quins scored the fewest number of points by a margin of l08. When we look back at their 10-match unbeaten run, that strikes as surprising. Their opponents, Sarries, scored 100 in a single match, though that will not come into their thnking this weekend.
Defensively the four clubs are far more evenly balanced, though Sarries’ and G-H’s figures help explain their dominance.
Top Four
W L PF PA Pts
Glos-Pury 13 3 569 328 69
Saracens 12 4 608 321 62
Quins 11 6 448 359 55
Bristol Bears 10 6 556 379 53
The simple prediction is two home wins. If that seems too straightforward, the PWR board might like to contemplate playing the semis on neutral grounds. But this year not even the final is likely to have that honour.
Memo: for the first (Premier 15s) final in 2017 Ealing Trailfinders was chosen to host. Vickii Cornborough enquired publicly why Twickenham wasn’t the venue. The official reasoning must have been that the game wouldn’t attract a big enough crowd. And certainly the Trailfinders ground proved quite big enough.
4,000 tickets have already been bought for the Gloucester match – excellent. But that leaves 12,115 places still available, according to official figures.
Crystal ball
The odds are strongly on a Glos-Pury v Sarries final, first v second.
Glos-Pury have top players everywhere you look, and one of the coaching team’s great achievements is to get the best out of all their players, whether seasoned veterans or relative newcomers. Sean Lynn is nearing the end of his time with them, and we can be sure that will be central to every player’s thoughts. They will want to ensure the best possible farewell present for him.
Sarries have history on their side, but they are no longer all-conquering. It’s to their credit that they finished the season so strongly, clinching the vital second place. Back in Round 12 they lay eight points behind Quins.
Quins have enjoyed a huge revival, but still strike me as a side that can breathe hot or cold. In their latest clash with Sarries they went down 10-33 at home. Last November, in the middle of their triumphant run, they beat them away by a single point.
Kildunne or no Kildunne, I don’t give them much chance of another win in north London.
Bears are the lucky club that squeezed through into the play-offs at the expense of Exeter Chiefs. Once more, I fail to see why they found winning so difficult. They have class players right through the team, yet contrived to lose as many as six matches. They were the club with sufficient pull to attract Ilona Maher to their number and ever larger crowds as a direct result.
But their inconsistency is revealed in their last four matches: they lost 39-38 away to seventh placed Trailfinders, then 22-31 at home to sixth placed Loughborough. They turned the tables by winning their last two games against Chiefs (easily) and Quins (the clincher).
Selection options (not yet announced)
We must assume that the selectors will have a free hand in choosing their squads. But there are possible limitations. The start of the new WER league in the States draws ever closer. It’s unlikely that any of the six franchises would insist on the presence of their players, but…
Equally, head coaches of Six Nations squads will be getting edgy about preparations. But none will surely expect a player to surrender a PWR kock-out match for an extra training session back home.
Of the 32 contracted Red Roses all but 11 will be eligible to take part in the semis. That helps to guarantee quality, but also underlines the uneven spread of talent across the nine clubs.
The four semi-finalists split like this:
Bristol Bears 5
Gloucester-Hartpury 7
Harlequins 3
Saracens 6
Rather than congratulating them, we might expect them to come top of the pile.
Venue
Why did PWR select the StoneX as the venue for the final? One reason: it’s a while since London last hosted a final. Once it was chosen, the options were limited: either the StoneX or the Stoop. The StoneX, an artificial surface, got the nod. So the league leaders and potential triple winners of the trophy, would have to win on their opponents’ ground to secure that unique achievement. Ah, but last time they defended their crown at home!
