The basic arithmetic is straightforward: 32 players will represent England in New Zealand next month. The original squad of 39 for the extended pre-season torture was 39, Abby Dow still ‘in rehabilitation’. That means that seven unfortunates will have to be left behind.
My guesses at who will feel the axe are bound to shock. But the official decision will shock far more, as there will be no room left for doubt.
There is still a distance to go. The Red Roses have a second summer match lined up against Wales on 14 September. The management team, Simon Middleton (Head Coach), Scott Bemand (Backs Coach) and Louis Deacon (Forwards Coach) will have put their heads together to see what they can glean from a mixed performance against the Eagles on Saturday at Exeter. They may even have a complete XV pencilled in already for the Bristol game.
The game at Sandy Park wasn’t the one-way traffic they might have hoped for. There were the flashes of brilliance we have come to expect from so gifted a squad, but two scores against (a converted try for Hope Rogers and a penalty try after Helena Rowland’s involuntary knock-on) tell a different story (more on that at the end).
Middleton made a rod for his own back when he voiced his famous statement ‘we’re looking for three or four world-class players in each position’. That automatically meant between 45 and 60 players any right-minded selector would add to his list. In the event, World Rugby’s maximum was set at a generous 32, to allow for ongoing Covid outbreaks – still sadly not out of the question. But 32 is 13 fewer than that lower figure of 45. How on earth do you leave thirteen world-class players at home?
We still have no idea how the selectors wish to divide the squad up. Most probably it will be 19 forwards/13 backs, but other permutations are perfectly possible.
Then media figures assure us they know what is in the selectors’ minds. A voice in the Daily Telegraph claims only two No 9s will travel. That leaves in doubt whether Claudia Macdonald is included as a scrum-half. Middleton has stated that she feels most at home in that position, but her performance on the left-wing banished doubts about her right to travel.
Selectors’ Options
The selectors still have several alternative paths ahead of them. They could take the extreme option and pick their strongest Fifteen. If they don’t, they have only the first round pool-game against Fiji to test them out, before they come to the first crunch match (in more senses than one) against the French.
A quite different path would be to give as many players as possible the chance to display their wares. Among those who took no part in the Exeter game are Amber Reed (a last-minute withdrawal against the Black Ferns at Exeter) and Sarah Beckett. Both of them would walk into most of the twelve sides competing in Auckland. And there are plenty of others: none of Vickii Cornborough, Sarah Bern, Lark Davies, Abbie Ward, Marlie Packer, Alex Matthews, Lydia Thompson – all of whom I’d term ‘dead certs’ – made an appearance at Sandy Park. Would it be best to give them a run out at Bristol?
Whichever course he takes, at some point Middleton has to say to a handful of players ‘Sorry, X, but there’s no more room at the inn’.
Past Guesses
I committed myself to a starting team a long while ago Red Roses’ Contracts – Looking forward to August and Time to pick a Red Roses team for the World Cup I have had plenty of second thoughts since. My batting order of preferences for the No 9 slot was and remains: 1. Leanne Infante; 2. Claudia Macdonald; 3, Mo Hunt.
That will shock the many thousands of Hunt’s admirers, but in my view the other two are quicker than her, have a faster service and – sparing her blushes – are a good few years younger.
I have had other barely justified feelings about who will not make the final cut. The most outlandish was Sarah Hunter herself. My arguments: she will be 37 when the tournament takes place; my preferred back-row trio reads 6 Alex Matthews, 7 Marlie Packer, 8 Poppy Cleall. Cleall I see as totally indispensable. So where does the skipper fit in?
My case is weakened by a stirring vote of confidence for her from the Head Coach. But I cannot see her having as decisive effect on the run of play as the Sarries’ No 8. What a predicament.
Shaunagh Brown, I fear, is one who might not make the trip. I outlined my concerns in my match-report (England v USA – Playing for your Life). Her one lifebelt is the need for nine front-row players per squad. One other prop to play in a white shirt recently is Detysha Harper. She was reinstated in the squad, then promptly excluded again, along with yet another tight-head, Laura Keates. So that leaves Bryony Cleall, Cornborough, Bern, Muir, Davies, Cokayne, Powell and Botterman – i.e. room for one more!
Others include two highly experienced operators, Amber Reed and Vicky Fleetwood. Reed’s one incontrovertible shortcoming is lack of top pace. Would she have turned and caught Ayesha Leti-I’iga at Northampton, as Helena Rowland did? I fear not.
Fleetwood’s one unavoidable lack is size and weight, an element that Deacon has seemed to set great store by since his promotion to pack coach. Fleetwood could yet prove me wrong by her value off the bench, when her pace and ferocity can be so unwelcome to a tiring opposition.
Tatyana Heard offers quite a different set of skills from Rowland and Holly Aitchison. It then depends on the type of game Bemand wants to see his threes play. It’s hard to look past the two showings against the Black Ferns. No Scarratt in sight – except on the TV screen – but Harrison, Rowland, Aitchison, Thompson and Kildunne ran rings round a floundering defence.
Whether the Telegraph pundit was correct or not about the number of scrum-halves to travel, I cannot see Lucy Packer being retained. For all her qualities, they lag behind those of Infante, Macdonald and Hunt.
The competition for places is fiercest in the back five of the pack. While props and hookers are required in good numbers by the regulations, not so numbers 6, 7 and 8. My judgement falls on Cath O’Donnell as the one to miss out. As I type these words I am as bemused as my reader probably is. She may be given a second chance at Bristol after such a long lay-off. She worked hard, but it was noticeable how much more Aldcroft was used at the line-out.
The 7 who do not travel (in my fallible opinion):
Reed, Sing, Packer L., Harper D., Keates, Talling, O’Donnell
An outlandish guess at who will find favour
13 Backs
Infante, Macdonald, Hunt, Harrison, Rowland, Aitchison, Thompson, Breach, Kildunne, McKenna, Heard, Scarratt, Dow
19 Forwards
Cornborough, Botterman, Bern, Muir, Cleall B., Cokayne, Davies, Powell, Aldcroft, Ward, Packer M., Matthews, Cleall P., Beckett, Hunter, Kabeya, Galligan, Brown, Beckett
The Wales Game
For the Wales match It’s perfectly possible that Middleton will opt for another Fifteen some way short of his optimum choice. There are so many players who want and deserve another chance to display their wares. But only two matches by way of preparation were always going to be a case of fitting a quart into a pint pot.
He has experienced this desperate decision-making before, in 2017, but a repeat performance doesn’t make the task any easier.
PS A fascinating thought from people with rugby brains far sharper than mine: when Claudia Macdonald thrust Jennine Detiveaux into touch to save a certain looking try, the ball went dead. Therefore what happened subsequently (Helena Rowland’s unhappy yellow card and a penalty try) was a misreading by the officials. Any chance it could be rescinded?
