Back in the days when ScrumQueens was our bible, the admirable John Birch pointed out severe shortcomings in World Rugby’s rankings table.
Without his ongoing assistance, I have to take it at face value. Fortunately very little has changed over the past weeks, since the sixteen qualified nations have devoted themselves largely to training.
South Africa and Canada are two noteworthy exceptions, but the results (50-20 and 33-5 to Canada) merely reinforce the correctness of the statisticians’ verdicts.
The top 16 look like this:
1 England 2 Canada 3 NZ 4 France 5 Ireland 6 Australia 7 Scotland 8 Italy 9 USA 10 Wales 11 Japan 12 South Africa 13 Spain 14 Netherlands 15 Fiji 16 Samoa
Of them Netherlands have not qualified, Brazil have.
The return to sixteen competitors brings a welcome variety and anticipation to events. It’s very important for new faces to show up – here the exuberant Brazilians, As Yaras, will add welcome colour.
The same finishing positions as usual?
Here comes a recurrent problem. Will the four semi-finalists be England, NZ, Canada and France, as perhaps 90% of rugby fans expect?
The answer is almost certainly yes.
While the points-range between first and fourth is relatively wide (97 – 85), the gap between France and Ireland is another leap (85 – 78).
The charm of the RWC is its one-offness; anything might happen. France got withinone point of England last season – away from home. But the history of the Women’s RWC shows few giant-killing acts. Oh, for another Irish defeat of the Black Ferns.
People who like upsets will be hoping for one or two shock results in the pool stages. Where might we find them?
In the first round Scotland play Wales. Their encounters have been heart-stopping for decades. For the remaining fixtures, I can see only one-way traffic.
In the second round the USA Eagles meet the Wallaroos. Both those nations figure among those who, I hope, will become leading contenders in the future … We have yet to discover what long-term benefits the WER will bring the Americans.
Head in Noose
For the present, I see Canada as likely finalists against England. That’s a big shout, but the Black Ferns managed to draw against the Maple Leafs only long after the home hooter had sounded.
Certain French folk may wonder at my disregard of their chances. On second thoughts, I do too.
