This is about my sixth attempt to predict how a first British and Irish Lions tour might fare.
Now at least we know the dates, fixtures and venues dates, fixtures and venues. But overall my concerns persist.
The Schedule
NZR has found it possible to add only two non-test matches, to make a grand total of five. This leads directly to momentous conclusions.
a. NZR did not find it sensible to add in matches against the four Super Aupiki teams. That adds to the suspicion that they felt these franchises would not provide adequate opposition. It points to doubts visible in other areas.
b. It has a crucial effect on the size of the Lions squad. A 5-match tour abroad might involve some 28-32 players.
The smaller the squad, the harder it becomes to include non-English players.
There were 32 Red Roses at the recent RWC. Only two No. 9s were selected, so what chance would Keira Bevan or Leia Brebner-Holden etc have of selection?
c. That leads directly to the core question, what will be the balance between the world champions and the Celtic players?
I have found no official reference to this point since Shaunagh Brown, an “ambassador” for the enterprise, stated years ago that players would be selected purely on ability, not a quota system.
I still find this contention impossible to believe. Every Lions squad since the 1880s has been the topic of lively debate, to put it mildly.
A first women’s squad consisting exclusively of Red Roses would be a complete nonsense, a rejection of what the Lions are supposed to stand for.
The tour is still a distance away. Two 6 Nations stand between; new players will appear, others disappear.
As things currently stand, I can see hardly a single Welsh player finding favour, a mere handful of Scots and a larger number of Irish.
But that total of five matches is a massive disappointment.
The Schedule
The tour is squeezed into three weeks.
That means there would be minimal time for recovery from injury, and no chance of reserves flying out.
At least the tour is well funded, it is the “Howden” Lions. Perhaps that will allow more players to take part.
The brevity of the tour (three weeks, 4-25 September) will help to focus attention on the five games. NZR is still having to work hard to encourage supporters out of their sofas to watch women’s matches in person.
The outcome of the 2025 RWC has done little to increase support for the Black Ferns. The public may wish to see the bright young stars, Jorja Miller and Braxton Sorensen-McGee at least once, but beyond them?
The Venues
The five stadiums can all welcome large crowds. In turn they are:
Semenoff: 18,500
FMG: 25,800
Go Media: 25,000
Sky: 34,000
One: 30,000
As usual the choices favour North Island; Christchurch hosts the last natch.
The NZ government has lobbed $3.5 million into the enterprise, but the publicists will have their work cut out to fill all five. The attendances at the WXV1 series held in Aotearoa are a poor omen.
Unresolved
Travel packages are available; it remains an intriguing unknown how many British and Irish supporters will make the trip.
For most supporters the crucial question is the national balance of the squad. It would help enormously if the Lions committee could keep its public aware of vital matters like these.
The latest announcement is pitched in the most optimistic terms, as you would expect. But one simple fact alters the flavour: Eden Park will not be used. That early decision, taken by Mark Robinson, the outgoing Chief Exec of New Zealand Rugby, has not been overturned. Kiwis are still not sure of full public backing.
Finally, if the nation supposedly the most rugby- minded in the world finds it tricky building a tour of just five matches, where else could the Lions tour in future?
