Now we know the pools and the match schedules for next year’s World Cup.
First the pools:
The 2025 RWC will be the first to include 16 nations since 2002. Regrettably the likely outcomes remain the same. Delightful as that is for the favoured nations, a competition that has thrown up only three winners across thirty-three years and nine tournaments could really do with a shake-up.
This is how things might develop, from the pool stages to the final
The four pools allow two to progress; my guesses shown in red:
England, Samoa, USA, Australia
Canada, Fiji, Wales, Scotland
New Zealand, Spain, Japan, Ireland
France, Brazil, Italy, South Africa
By my reckoning that would lead to these quarter-finals:
England v Scotland
France v Ireland
– leading to:
Semi-final: England v France
And:
NZ v Italy
Canada v Australia
– leading to:
Semi-final: NZ v Canada
Final: The Red Roses v the Black Ferns yet again!
Guesstimates of this sort are based heavily on past results and past experience. What the rare neutral observer will be looking for are the big upsets, the shocks that tingle.
They have happened in the past, most notably when the Black Ferns lost to Ireland in 2014. There could be more this time. Teams have been rising and falling over the past year, WXV giving them an added opportunity to test their mettle.
Among the Six Nations Ireland and Scotland have prospered, France, Italy and Wales not producing the goods. One more 6N tournament awaits in March and April, another opportunity for the odds to swing.
With the smaller Pacific Four group, we’ve already seen a change of cast. Australia qualified for WXV1 in 2023, only to be displaced by the USA this year. But the Wallaroos are on the rise again; the Eagles finding it hard to gain momentum.
What most warm-hearted supporters want is to see the outsiders making a mark. They could include one or both of the Oceania sides and the Bokkies. Standards are rising there at a rate. The question is whether the gap in attainment can close fast enough for a tournament that is, as I type, 303 days away.
One fascinating area of doubt comes with selection. What steps will the sixteen managements take to ensure the strongest possible squad? I’m thinking primarily of Sevens players. Recent evidence has proved that simply drafting in your top stars from the SVNS Series doesn’t automatically produce the desired effect. Adjustment from the one code to the other is tricky.
If players are invited in, then it needs to be at an early stage and for good. You can argue that both France and NZ have suffered from trying to keep both plates spinning. The Ferns won a glorious gold medal at the Paris Olympics, but their 15s squad has lost its sheen of invincibility. Les Bleues have fallen between two stools.
Second, the Schedules
The organisers have tried to time the matches to suit the largest number of spectators, so they all start at the weekend. Kick-off times range from noon to 20.15, which does seem rather late for families needing to travel home a distance post-match.
Each management and squad will have its own idea of the perfect sequence of games. To the innocent outsider it might seem best to play the strongest opponent last. If so, three of the four home nations have struck lucky: England play Australia last; Ireland play New Zealand and Wales play Fiji.
If their concern is to have a (relatively) easy run-in, then England get the show on the road against the USA at the Stadium of Light, Ireland start against Japan, but Scotland take on Wales in Salford. That is one crucial match to note; there are plenty of others.
Full details available @ x.com/rugbyworldcup/status/1848621161103446141
