Who are the Underdogs?
We were privileged to watch the two greatest semi-finals in the history of the World Cup. Have there ever been two such hotly contested semis in rugby? It’s doubtful.
The Canadians came within one score of equalling the out-and-out favourites. Just look at what was happening immediately before the greatest try of the tournament.
The Black Ferns simply had to win their contest against the French. In front of their own crowd no other result would have been acceptable. A single point did it.
You may or may not be pleased at seeing the usual suspects disputing yet another final. Donning my impartial judge’s wig, I’m disappointed that other nations have once more failed to reach the top step of the medals podium. How would Canada versus France have gone down as the main course at Eden Park? Lead balloons come to mind. Instead, they have the unrewarding role of warm-ups in the tussle for the bronze medal.
So it’s Red Roses v Black Ferns. Who can gain the coveted Underdog title?
England
‘Of course you’re going to win. Look at all that money that’s been poured your way. Look at all those starry players you’ve gathered around you.’
The Red Roses’ performances in New Zealand have hardly lived up to their billing. Yes, they registered big wins against the minnows, Fiji and South Africa, as expected. But the clash against the ancient enemy France was a struggle; the semi against the amateur Maple Leafs even more so.
Then there’s the saying: ‘Don’’t peak too soon.’
The Red Roses are one of very few teams to have won test matches in Aotearoa; that stands to their credit. In sharp contrast, they have never beaten the Black Ferns in a final; both their victories (1994, 2014) came against other opponents. And there will be a haka and a crowd to contend with.
The pack is outstanding. The question is whether its strengths can outweigh the Black Ferns’ power sources – out behind. The English backs lack nothing in pace, but their defensive patterns are less secure.In both the 2022 Six Nations and here in Aotearoa the opposition has scored tries with a spare player left over. Will Middleton be minded to reintroduce Lydia Thompson for her defensive expertise?
England have a long history of failure to overcome. Two recent finals tell their own sad story: 2010 (10-13) on home soil and 2017 (32-41) after leading at half-time. They still disturb the memory.
True Underdogs?
New Zealand
The Black Ferns’ position is as different as it’s possible to imagine.
From the moment New Zealand Rugby’s application to host the ninth RWC was accepted, one stated goal was to fill Eden Park for the final. The assumption all along was that the Black Ferns would be one of the protagonists. A sixth trophy win was all too predictable.
Then came the 2021 European tour, which proved one cold shower too many. Four colossal defeats in a row, and the future looked dark. Their restoration to winning ways came very late. You might put it entirely down to the appointment of Wayne Smith as head coach, but he had mighty little time to get to know the players and plant his vision of the game on them.
He has done magnificently well, but admits none of his sides had ever been Underdogs before.
The Black Ferns strode through to the semis with an ease broken only by an uncomfortable start to their Wallaroos game. They survived to a must-win semi.
That 25-24 win was met with whoops of delight and relief. Would it be enough to see off the Red Roses who had posted 99 points against them in that two-match autumn series? Can England take consolation from that tiny one-point margin?
It is probable that the Black Ferns pack won’t be able to hold their opponents off for the entire 80 minutes, and Tuesday saw the withdrawal of the No 8 Liana Mikaele-Tu’u through injury. World Cup finals have a horrible habit of denying players their ultimate reward.
But it has to be admitted England haven’t been as sharp in front of the line as expected. The line- out is a key area; England must surely take charge there.
Smith was quick to assert that his Black Ferns were the true Underdogs, but he and his analysts will have pinpointed a host of weaknesses in the English set-up.
Wes Clark, his assistant coach said of England: ‘They’re potentially the best women’s team of all time, but we’re up for the challenge.’
He calmly neglects to mention that the Ferns always win the Big One.
Crowds of Crowds
England have grown used to attendances way beyond what used to be the norm till a few years ago. Crowds above 15,000 in France have been commonplace. This year has seen England’s own record rise to 15,836. And they have played several times at Twickenham, though not with a full house.
The Black Ferns were impressed by the crowds that watched their games in Pau and Castres, but Eden Park will be different. Only a few sardines may still be able to squeeze in*. The atmosphere will be intense. Will the pressure lie heavier on the Ferns, on whom so many hopes have been placed in recent days?
*No they won’t; the tin is already full!
So who wins?
Plans B-Z are all the rage at the moment, mostly pointing at English inadequacies. The obvious example would be the game with Australia, played in a tempest. Any coach would have counselled keeping the ball tight. Since the England pack are the undisputed mistresses of that art, they reacted sensibly.
When have the Red Roses over-relied on the pack? Only against the French who have been the one side over the past three years to cause them real hardship. Then came the Canada game. Two tries from Abby Dow might sound like another free-wheeling victory, but it was nothing of the sort. Did the occasion get to them?
If Plan B means passing out to Zoe Harrison and the centres, England have done that countless times – ask New Zealand. Scott Bemand must be upset that people should think his backs aren’t capable of playing their full part. A glance at the tries they have scored over their 30-win trot is all the evidence needed. And then they added a useful 120-metre try last weekend.
By contrast, the Black Ferns have tried to develop their kicking game, which Smith saw as an area needing urgent attention. They still lag behind England in that regard, even without Helena Rowland, whose recovery is being anxiously monitored.
For both teams turnovers will be a no-no. A central question is whether the accurate long kicks England manufacture will give them a crucial advantage. The follow-up is an essential element in the ploy, the Black Ferns could easily feast off any positional error, as they did against France.
But it’s naive to argue that this game will be between one set of backs and one set of forwards.
The Red Roses can take heart from the Black Ferns scraping through to the final thanks only to an off-line penalty in the 79th minute. So near and yet so far.
The tournament director, Michelle Hooper, said after the semis: “We could not have written a better script than to have the host team, the Black Ferns, competing in a Rugby World Cup final for the first time ever at home in front of whānau and friends, and against the number one team in the world – England.”
It’s a pity so many conspiracy theorists believe that script was somehow imposed upon referees and TMOs. While we can reject those damaging comments out of hand, we might still ask: How full would the stadium have been had France beaten the Black Ferns?
DETAILS:
Referee: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Saturday 12 November Eden Park, Auckland Kick-off 06.30 GMT UK Coverage: ITV
