How is the 2022 Six Nations shaping up?
Attendances are up, new gate records are being set.
The long-standing split of 2 + 4 (England and France versus the rest) continues, and will do so for quite some time. There is no short-term answer to the unevenness.
Wales
Wales have made the most decisive move by introducing contracts. Were their two wins on the trot a direct result? They are enjoying an uplift unimaginable only a few months ago. They had the staying power to recover twice in the second half. Ioan Cunningham may well suggest to them the best policy is to take the lead early and extend it.
Ireland
By contrast Ireland still seem to be suffering from past neglect. Like the Welsh they have received assurances that all will be for the best in the future. They too have a new coaching staff who have introduced a lot of new young players. But the overall inexperience is telling: Eimear Considine (25 appearances) really should not be the most capped member of a starting Fifteen.
But they are a determined group, and can take some pride in conceding only 40 points to France in front of another huge baying crowd.
Scotland
Scotland’s first 40 minutes against England were an eye-opener. showing that they are truly on an upward curve. But they couldn’t last the pace. The loss away to Wales was painful; they allowed them to come back from a losing position, so they will have to lay emphasis on full concentration and game-management. They won’t get much change out of a visit from the French, so must target their two final matches against Ireland and Italy.
France
France’s margins of defeat against England have been so tiny that you might wonder if their semi-pro approach isn’t the preferable option. One area at the front of Annick Hayraud’s mind must be the reserve strength. There are very few areas where she would like more competition, but the most obvious is midfield. At present she uses Jessy Trémoulière as her second-choice No 10, and in the centre the alternatives to Gabrielle Vernier and Maelle Filopon lack the quality of England’s options.
Italy
Italy drew the short straw in the fixture-schedule. They have met first France away, then England at home. They sit bottom of the table. I suspect any one of the ‘other’ four would be occupying that unfortunate slot, if the draw had fallen differently. As they were constantly on the receiving end, their penalty count rose into double figures.
They have another challenge with their trip to Ireland. Last year they came unstuck there by 20 points, so they have a third hill to climb.
The Bench
The eight players occupying the benches have received more comment pre-match than ever before.
Two are worth considering in some detail, Sioned Harries and Beibhinn Parsons. Harries returned to the Welsh squad this campaign after a lengthy absence, but only to the bench. Twice she helped to tip close matches in Wales’ favour. Will she find favour for a starting position against England? One central reason for keeping her waiting is her position, No 8, which is held by the respected captain, Siwan Lillicrap.
When Harries has appeared on the pitch, Lillicrap has shifted forward to the second row. The more obvious move would be to the flank, but Cunningham has favoured the admirable Alisha Butchers, Alex Callender and Beth Lewis there. Is it time to make the decisive call and play Lillicrap and Harries side by side? Against England they will need all the power and weight they can muster, quite apart from native skill and commitment.
Parsons has twice been confined to the bench, a strange use of resources. Greg McWilliams has explained his thinking, but would Parsons have made the unforced errors her replacement, Lucy Mulhall, made in Toulouse? For all that she is the captain of Ireland’s contracted Sevens squad, Mulhall hardly put in a faultless performance.
Possession
One of rugby’s great commandments is ‘keep possession!’ – especially in Sevens. The stats from the current 6N series tell a different story. In Toulouse Ireland enjoyed 50% possession, but went down to a 35-point loss. Even more striking: Scotland had 51% possession against England in Edinburgh, but suffered a 52-point loss.
In the 15s game it is efficiency that counts above all. ‘Win ball, score tries’ is the crude shorthand.
Forecast
Only one of the three weekend fixtures is unpredictable, in Cork between the two I-nations. Both will be desperate for a win, their first of the series. Until we know the line-ups we can only assume that Italy will have the more seasoned side, which can help when the going is tough.
Greg McWilliams is receiving advice from all quarters about his selections. Sending out the strongest XV possible would be a good start.
At least the Girls in Green will have fond memories of winning last year’s encounter 25-5. They will be keen to reproduce that result under the new regime.
Results thus far:
Round One
Scotland 5 England 57
Ireland 19 Wales 27
France 39 Italy 6
Round Two
France 40 Ireland 5
Wales 24 Scotland 19
Italy 0 England 74
Round Three Fixtures
9 April
England v Wales, Kingsholm, Gloucester 16.45
10 April
Scotland v France, Scotstoun, Glasgow 13.00
Ireland v Italy, Musgrave Park, Cork 17.00
