It may be the dawn of the men’s 2025 Six Nations, but let’s turn our minds to more serious matters.
In the women’s version all sorts of upsets are possible.
We have two new head coaches in charge: Fabio Roselli (Italy) and more recently Sean Lynn (Wales) share the task of improving their squads’ placements. Last year the Azzurre finished fifth, Cymru sixth.
Like every other coach they have a double target in view: doing well in the 6N is merely a stepping-stone to prosperity in the World Cup in the summer.
England
Who can beat the Red Roses? No team looks likely, not even France. Though they have proved consistently the second best nation, their record in the Crunch must weigh heavily on them – no win in the last thirteen encounters. Even when they have come within seconds of victory, luck has deserted them.
It will be fascinating ti see whether John Mitchell follows the same policy as last year. Then he consistently chose large squads for the six training sessions, making minor alterations along the way.
He announced a list of 38 players for an opening meet, but there are plenty of others performing excellently in the PWR who might find favour later. While large numbers add realism to the sessions, they also increase the disappointment for the many excluded in the end.
As we come to the second year of the Mitchell reign, we’ll discover more about his basic attitudes to game-plans and selection. I couldn’t help feeling last year that his first intent was to avoid the possibility of an early defeat – no matter how improbable.
Now he has his feet under the table, he can reveal his true coaching style. He was brave enough to give two players (Bo Westcombe-Evans and Phoebe Murray) a debut cap in the first round last year. Will he be equally generous this time?
I hardly need say that he could pick three sides that would all have a chance of gaining a Grand Slam.
Italy
The Azzurre, the last nation to be added to the 6N eighteen years ago, are still hoping to make their mark. They have beaten all their five opponents bar England, but have only one second-place to show for their efforts.
It will be fascinating to see how Fabio Roselli goes about setting his personal mark on the Azzurre’s play. Will he ask for more security of possession? That has been the cost of their very open style of play, so reminiscent of the French, who are faced with the same dilemma. Keeping the ball available at every moment brings unreliable risks.
Certainly when the pieces click, they can play delightful rugby. They don’t have the wide resources enjoyed by Les Bleues, so lack the strength in depth needed to maintain high pressure right through an 80-minute game.
Roselli doesn’t have an easy baptism. The first round sees them take on England away, then they host Ireland at home.
They weren’t at their best in WXV2 last autumn. That might well account for Nanni Raineri’s removal from office. They didn’t post a point against Scotland and scraped home 8-5 against Wales. Their only comfortable win came against Japan.
Just recently the Latin Cup has begun its second season. I’m disappointed that it has not yet proved possible to extend it: just two franchises each from Italy and Spain. While that may be adequate for Las Leonas, the Italians really should be able to muster more sides. As it happened, on 1 February Zebre Parma lost to Iberians Elche in Parma, the chosen HQ for the national side. At least in the other game Benetton beat Iberians Majadahonda 38-10 in Barcelona.
On the personal front, it’s encouraging to see Giada Franco and Michela Sillari return to the ranks. They’ve been missing for too long.
Wales
The good news:
Eyes will be focused on seeing how Sean Lynn sets about reigniting the cohesion and talent in his squad. He will be faced with new work patterns familiar to every coach who has switched from club to international level. Gone will be the weekly routine, where he can monitor the progress being made before his eyes. Wales have a fine training centre outside Cardiff, but how often will he manage to see all his squad assembled there?
One main plank of his programme will be to ensure that his top players perform as well in scarlet as they do for their PWR clubs. No-one wants to believe it’s only the presence of Red Roses alongside them that produces the results.
As the Celtic Challenge has advanced, so Gwalia Lightning’s record has improved. They stand second, having beaten Edinburgh home and away. How many uncapped players will Lynn add to his squad? Alaw Pyrs is being widely canvassed as a valuable addition to the second row.
The less good news:
The latest is a hamstring injury to Sisilia Tuipulotu that ends her season. This adds more disquiet about a fundamental weakness of recent Welsh squads, their size and power. Even Gwalia show this characteristic; it takes a lot of skill and effort to compensate.
Ireland
Ireland could prove the big challengers this year. They have real depth allied to a number of younger players – for example Aoife Wafer, Dannah O’Brien and Erin King – of exceptional promise. If we can assume the leading 7s players will remain available for all or most of the campaign, then that will strengthen them further.
In WXV1 they beat New Zealand (memorably) and the USA (by 12 points). Only Canada proved too tough a challenge. Results like that can have strange effects on people. They know they can beat any side put in front of them. It’s called confidence.
They are deprived of Béibhinn Parsons, who suffered a broken leg in December. But they came triumphant through the campaign in Vancouver without Sam Monaghan, so they are used to unwelcome deprivation.
As Lynne Cantwell said a few years ago, rugby is the one team sport where the Irish can compete with the best on the world stage. And now she is back in overall charge.
Scotland
Another fascination will be to see whether the Scots can outperform the Irish. They too are on an upward trend, but theirs is even more welcome, since their long-term record in the 6N lies a country mile behind the Irish. Last year only a point separated them (2 wins, 3 losses); this year the sides meet in Edinburgh in a climactic final round.
We need think back no more than a handful of years to a team that suffered relentless losses. Now they have talented players across the park, most of whom – unlike the Irish – have the benefit of regular high-quality competition in the PWR. There is a real tussle for starting places. Bryan Easson speaks the plain truth when he broaches the subject of selection. It’s tough.
One caveat – I’d like to see stronger competition for the 10 shirt. Helen Nelson has been a fine servant for Scotland in that position for many years, but her form can come and go. There are some formidable backs outside her; they need to be given as much ball as possible, by all manner of delivery.
The Scots have the advantage of three home games (the others are England and Italy).
France
Predict the unpredictable! The first great unknown is who the co-coaches will select. You’ve needed to be an expert mind-reader to understand their choices over the past year or two.
One thing their suffering supporters know is that, however brilliantly they perform, it’s unlikely to be for the entire campaign. And it’s a matter of consistency not merely from one game to the next, but from one moment to the next. Eradicating unforced errors must figure high on the coaches’ to-do list.
I’ve dwelt recently on their inability to hammer home victories. One response would be to adopt a more hard-skinned approach, but the coaches have given no indication they are willing to alter their approach so radically. Then there is the question of the players themselves.
Are any of them minded to voice their opinions about general strategy? My suspicion is yes; that is a fundamental part of French make-up, serious discussion leading to informed decision- making. Then the question comes: are Mignot and Ortiz (not forgetting Sylvain Mirande, the No 3) willing to accept ideas that are contrary to theirs?
Beyond that, why two people in charge? They cannot possibly agree on every detail. How are players, old and young, experienced and fledgling, meant to respond? This is one area where I favour a benevolent dictator.
