Three nations, Australia, Canada and Wales, have a prime role to play in how the top division works out. They may rank behind England, France and New Zealand, but their dearest wish will be to topple one of the assumed giants.
They don’t fit neatly together in the two pools of three. Wales, the one European team among them, stand apart, taking on the other two plus the Black Ferns.
Wales
As the lowest ranked of the six (though only a smidgen behind Australia), Wales have a tough task. But they are buoyed by great confidence, a team reborn after the bad times they passed through so recently. And they now have 32 contracted players to select from. Their sequence of matches (see below) isn’t the kindest they could have wished for. Their prime target must be the Wallaroos, who find winning tough these days, though they somehow manage to retain fifth ranking. The two sides meet in the last round.
It will be fascinating to see whether Wales’ much vaunted front row can overcome the power of the Maple Leafs. If the pack can get on top, then anything is possible. But the Canadians are doughty opponents, as England discovered, when they failed to put away a team deprived of a player inside the first quarter of the match.
In the Wales v USA game at the end of September (The WRU would prefer me to say Cymru v UDA) it was a home win 38-18, but the Eagles are condemned to the second tier, and the Maple Leafs have been beating them with ease for some years.
Beyond the excitement of the coming tournament the Welsh management and squad see WXV as the first of a series of major events. Next comes the 2024 Six Nations, where a third consecutive third place is the base target: then another World Cup a year later. For them it’s a gradual progression till they can take on the top teams with confidence.
They have said farewell to some great names in recent Welsh rugby history, Siwan Lillicrap, Elinor Snowsill and Caryl Thomas, but the squad keeps increasing in depth and quality.
Australia
Rugby in Australia is in turmoil. Critics are sharpening their swords as the Wallabies labour at the World Cup in France. The Wallaroos have suffered neglect ever since Rugby Australia placed all its eggs in the Sevens basket. That squad has achieved mighty things, but at the cost of leaving the Fifteens venture in a backwater of neglect.
The overall effect is seen in the tiny number of international matches they have played. They have yet to beat England; they have managed one victory over France in five attempts. The crucial game for them comes last of the three, against Wales. At this distance it’s hard to see them overcoming a side brimming with new-found confidence.
Fortunately, they are a resilient and athletic group, good enough to see off the challenge of the USA Eagles for a place in the top tier of WXV. That Wales fixture should prove one of the most intriguing of the whole series.
Canada
No-one watching the Maple Leafs on their recent visit to England will doubt the threat they pose, their tenacity. Their performance in the second test left serious questions lingering over English standards. But the fact remains that they find victory hard to achieve against the best sides. In the Pacific Four series they lost 21-52 to the Black Ferns in Ottawa.
They found the Wallaroos a handful when they last met, the pack not managing to get on top of things as expected.
In Sophie De Goede they have a remarkable young player and captain, but the best policy for the squad would be to let her take a back seat. In the England series her influence was all too obvious. For all that she is an accomplished place-kicker, it shouldn’t be necessary for her to carry that extra responsibility. The other fourteen really must step up and relieve her of some of the pressure.
Their game against France will be fascinating. Given the strong Francophone presence in the squad (several playing in France’s Elite 1), it’s a pity that the two nations meet so rarely. A quick comparison: Canada v England 35 matches; Canada v France 16. And they have won nearly half of those meetings.
The two Pools
England, France and Wales
Australia, Canada and New Zealand
Sequences
Australia play England first, France second, Wales third
Canada play Wales first, England second and France third
Wales play Canada first, New Zealand second, Australia third
