First the line-ups:
Saturday 5 November:
Canada v England, kick-off 03.30
New Zealand v France, kick-off 06.30
Both times GMT
The Outlook
Just four sides are left, and they happen to be the top-four in world rankings.
The long-term hope must be that within the space of three short years other nations – USA? Italy? Australia? – may advance enough to offer real competition for these prized places. But the odds are that the 2025 RWC will come too soon for such a new look. World Rugby’s strategy for expansion has to be even longer-term.
Canada deserve high praise for being the only truly amateur side to survive.
That is the pinch-point of course. We can look forward to far more contracted players competing in the tenth RWC in England, but progress won’t come easily. As a prize example: the Scottish Rugby Union baffled many people by announcing the offer of contracts, but only after the end of the current tournament. This generosity won’t come quickly or abundantly enough for the Scots to make the breakthrough they all desire. And not only Hannah Smith may have retired from duty by then.
Predictions
Canada v England
Of the two games, only the first offers a clear-cut winner – the Red Roses put 50 points on the Maple Leafs last autumn (51-12 at the Stoop). In Aotearoa the Canadians are playing infinitely better; their powerful pack is supported by an able half-back link, Justine Pelletier and Alex Tessier, and pacy backs. And yet they lost the services of their regular No 9, Brianna Miller, to injury.
Sophie de Goede has consistently proved how right the management was to appoint her captain, despite her youth.
Their set-pieces have even been more secure than England’s (thanks Optajonny).
But the Leafs remain amateurs, and the weekly slog of matches is bound to make itself felt. It wll be interesting to see if Kevin Rouet makes changes to last weekend’s squad.
For England, the management’s big decision is whether to pick a side purely to win this one match, or to look forward to a winner-takes-all final. What are likely to be the pressure-points against either les Bleues or the Black Ferns and do they prepare their team with an eye on the following weekend?
That would mean a change of policy (I’d like to coin the phrase ‘take one game at a time’, but fear I may be too late). But that final has been at the back and front of their minds for five years.
The critics have been loud in their condemnation of the Red Roses. ‘Boring’ is a much used adjective.
‘If they go on playing like this, they’ll drive the crowds away’. ‘A real turn-off’; and so on.
It’s as if these close analysts have limited their viewing to England’s last four games. Maybe they’d nodded off by the 14th minute of the quarter-final; the ball flung up and down the line despite the torrential rain.
A claim that the backs don’t see the ball flies in the face of the stats: Jess Breach, Abby Dow, Emily Scarratt and co. have been scoring tries by the dozen. And, as the saying goes, you can only play the teams placed in front of you. The Black Ferns have feasted on the Wallaroos 23 times without a reverse.
So yet another advance to the final seems probable.
France v New Zealand
This is a game to set the pulses racing.
The Black Ferns may well start as favourites. It’s by no means a given, since it involves ending a four-match losing streak, and France, even without Laure Sansus and Romane Ménager, are no pushovers.
But crucially this is the first time they have to overcome the five-time trophy winners on Kiwi soil.
Two notable stats from the France-Italy quarter-final:
1. France kicked 22 times and regained possession 14 times! The danger against the Ferns is that a misguided boot offers the ball to their most dangerous opponents.
2. Les Bleues have conceded fewer points (21) thus far than any other team.
Wayne Smith is unlikely to place a high priority on booting the ball, and France enjoy the counter- attack as much as anyone.
One selection headache he has concerns the return to fitness of co-captain Kennedy Simon. She played the last half-hour of the Wales match, Sarah Hirini the rest. Does he keep the same pattern a second time?
A lot of rain has fallen on northern New Zealand in recent days, but for next weekend the forecast is better. The drier the conditions, the happier for the Black Ferns; their obvious strength lies out behind. Against England, France have shown enormous resilience in that part of the field. Their centres, Gabrielle Vernier and Maëlle Filopon proved a match for the Red Roses’ midfielders, but they may yet regret the absence of their two leading wingers, Cyrielle Banet and Caroline Boujard. Joanna Grisez has transferred her skills from 7s to 15s with conspicuous success, but we wait to see who is picked at 11.
The French set-piece isn’t quite on a par with the English, but can help them dominate. That is a key area for the Ferns; their set-scrum and above all their line-out must be in good working order. If the latter isn’t, expect the French to keep booting the ball deep into touch to reinforce their authority.
It will be 50 weeks since the terminal Castres game.
