England’s three Pool C matches follow this sequence: Fiji, France, South Africa.
It’s self-evident that the second game is the key. That brings the first question: does Simon Middleton give his No 1 choice team a run-out in the Fiji game?
That would run counter to past practice. At the 2017 RWC he wasn’t faced with the same problem (of facing one major competitor among the three). As things turned out, England’s performance against the USA in Match 3 allowed the opposition to scrape through to the knock-out stages, by virtue of the 26 points they notched. It made no difference to outcomes: England reached the final (and lost); France defeated the USA in the bronze medal match.
We may well see distinctly different line-ups for each of the three pool matches. The selectors already know their first-choice team – we can expect them (or most of them) to appear against France – though even that call may not do justice to Middleton’s professed faith in all his players. He will want to ensure everyone of the 32 players appears at least once before the knock-out stages, when things grow distinctly tougher. Under the new set-up there will be a maximum of three k-o matches.
Straws in the Wind
There is the possibility of a parallel with the 2014 RWC. Canada forced a deserved draw 13-13 with England in a pool match to win their way through to their only final thus far. (Ireland had beaten New Zealand!) But England had more staying power to win the trophy.
Will France replace the Maple Leafs in a similar double in the coming competition? Their recent results have been a distinct disappointment, especially the away loss to Italy. Performances have declined into the second half. Back in the 2022 Six Nations they failed to pile on the points against well beaten sides. Scores of 39-6 v Italy, 40-5 v Ireland, 28-8 v Scotland, 33-5 v Wales confirm their limitations.
By contrast New Zealand are a team with confidence renewed. They haven’t lost since last November.
Time to Choose
Currently my first-choice Red Roses team reads: 15 Kildunne, 14 Breach, 13 Scarratt, 12 Rowland, 11 Dow, 10 Harrison, 9 Infante, 1 Cornborough, 2 Davies, 3 Bern, 4 Aldcroft, 5 Ward, 6 Matthews, 7 M. Packer, 8 Cleall
This assumes of course that Abby Dow is considered match-fit. If not, Jess Breach switches wings to allow Lydia Thompson in on the right.
If that selection proves me horribly wrong, I shall be delighted, because an alternative XV would hardly affect its strength. For example: 15 McKenna, 14 Thompson, 13 Heard, 12 Aitchison, 11 Breach, 10 Harrison, 9 Macdonald, 1 Botterman, 2 Cokayne, 3 Muir, 4 O’Donnell, 5 Galligan, 6 Aldcroft, 7 Kabeya, 8 Hunter (only three names repeated)
A central reason for England’s No 1 position in world rugby is the quality of the bench. Imagine an eight of Amy Cokayne, Hannah Botterman, Maud Muir, Cath O’Donnell, Sadia Kabeya, Claudia Macdonald, Holly Aitchison and Sarah Mckenna, and the pace is liable to increase. Not even France can put out such reserve strength, as their recent record proves.
For every nation so much depends on the avoidance of injury. History provides a warning on this point. Let’s hope this tournament turns a healthy corner.
