Can a Royal Hug make the Difference?
The Black Ferns were invited to Buckingham Palace. The Red Roses became so many Cinderellas not invited to the ball. The decisive factor?
Here are the teams the two Kiwi head coaches have conjured up:
England
15 Ellie Kildunne 14 Abby Dow 13 Emily Scarratt 12 Tatyana Heard 11 Jess Breach 10 Holly Aitchison 9 Mo Hunt 1 Mackenzie Carson 2 Lark Atkin-Davies 3 Sarah Bern 4 Zoe Aldcroft 5 Abbie Ward 6 Maddie Feaunati 7 Marlie Packer (captain) 8 Alex Matthews
16 Amy Cokayne 17 Hannah Botterman 18 Maud Muir 19 Morwenna Talling 20 *Georgia Brock 21 Lucy Packer 22 Zoe Harrison 23 Helena Rowland
*uncapped
New Zealand
Ayesha Leti-I’iga
15 Renee Holmes 14 Ayesha Leti-I’iga 13 Logo-i-Pulotu Lemapu-Atai’i (Sylvia) Brunt 12 Ruahei Demant (co-captain) 11 Katelyn Vahaakolo 10 Hannah King 9 Maia Joseph 1 Chryss Viliko 2 Georgia Ponsonby 3 Tanya Kalounivale 4 Alana Bremner 5 Maiakawanakaulani Roos 6 Liana Mikaele-Tu’u 7 Kennedy Tukuafu (nee Simon, co-captain) 8 Kaipo Olsen-Baker
16 Atlanta Lolohea 17 Kate Henwood 18 Amy Rule 19 Maama Mo’onia Vaipulu 20 Layla Sae 21 Irtitana Hohaia 22 Amy du Plessis 23 Ruby Tui
One crucial test for the Ferns will be at half-back (English sense). Allan Bunting has returned the experienced Ruahei Demant to 12, leaving the 20-year-old Hannah King (3 caps) to partner Maia Joseph (4 caps). It means Amy du Plessis has to wait her turn alongside Ruby Tui, who, despite her fame, will be undertaking only her fourteenth 15s test.
Now that the huggable Ayesha Leti-I’iga is the most famous woman in Aotearoa-New Zealand, we must see how that affects her game.
Allan Bunting took his time announcing his side; but I doubt he was musing over England’s line-up.
England
Was this your choice?
John Mitchell has taken the bold step of changing his front row completely, knowing he has power and skill across all six in question.
What a relief to see Abbie Ward restored alongside Zoe Aldcroft! Name me a better pair in world rugby. It’ll be interesting to see who takes the job of calling line-outs.
The back-line shows Emily Scarratt replacing Helena Rowland at 13. Form is temporary, class permanent, as the pundits say. It will be a change to see Scarratt using the wider spaces offered in that position. I hope she isn’t required once to take a crash ball through inside.
Mitchell might have taken pity on Abby Dow and offered her the 11 shirt where she last played this opposition; she was starved of the ball last week. But it’s no change.
Once more Mitchell offers one player the chance of making her debut. This time it’s Georgia Brock, the Gloucester-Hartpury flanker. Congratulations to her, but it won’t stop G-H’s fans bleating about the continued absence of Emma Sing from the ranks.
The fact is, too many players who took park in the chain of summer training sessions are disappointed. My concern is whether any of them, capped or uncapped, will get a chance to prove their worth some time soon. Until well established players retire, the answer must be no.
Officials:
Referee: Aimee Barrett-Theron (SARU)
AR1: Aurélie Groizeleau (FFR)
AR2: Chelsea Gillespie (SRU)
TMO: Leo Colgan (IRFU)
Cautious Remarks
Plain fact: the Black Ferns aren’t the force they were. In recent times they have lost to Canada, England and France. But urgent steps have been taken to put things right. One indicator: in 2023 twelve new Black Ferns were capped, the same number as in 2022. Concerns persist that players still awaiting contracts might be tempted to join RL in Australia. Big names like Stacey Waaka and Portia Woodman-Wickliffe are now missing.
History in two lines: after 31 test matches the Black Ferns lead 19-11 (plus an 8-8 draw in 2011). The two sides haven’t met at HQ for twelve years.
The visitors mount an average of 14 caps each, that is par for the course. But the average age, at just under 25, is striking. Only three players can claim to be over 30. That is where individual skills will be put to the test. The lack of big-match experience is unavoidable.
There is concern in New Zealand about the quantity of talent coming through the system, linked with doubts about the standards Super Aupiki achieves. In the past the Black Ferns, like the All Blacks, didn’t need constant international competition to prove their worth; the past few years have put a different gloss on things. They are very aware of the challenges facing them.
The New Zealand Approach
It’s little surprise that attention is fixed on John Mitchell, since he is a Kiwi. Whichever side wins, New Zealand can draw some credit from the result.
Most observers there are cautious about predicting a result. They point to the ongoing strength of the opposition, though they underline the relative weakness of their European rivals. True as that may be, no nation across the world bar New Zealand can show a victory over England since France’s by a point in 2018.
I am still bemused by the Black Ferns’ tour plans. They haven’t played since they walloped Australia at Ballymore in July. Despite that they have just the one match in Europe. So they lump the England game together with the three WXV1 games as part of a single tour. Given their shortage of top-class opposition and experience, that seems an inexplicable omission.
The England Approach
If Mitchell did instruct his players to offer more pace around the field – as he had said he would – then it was bound to lead to unwanted errors. Turnovers and interceptions were more numerous than usual. I reckon they will offer a more contained game, certainly in the opening stages.
It was line-speed that suffocated the Black Ferns last time they met. Only rarely did the backs find the time and space to develop their dangerous moves. That element will remain central to the issue.
Attendance
By midday on 12 Thursday, 40,000 tickets had been sold. The unknown is how many more fans will roll up on the day. There has been no indication yet that the RFU is expecting to beat its record of 58,498.
The question is why? Are England’s great local rivals still a bigger selling-point than a rare visit by the recurrent world champions? The RFU did outstandingly well to attract 48,000 to last year’s Ireland match. If the final Allianz gate doesn’t surpass that total, we’ll have to wonder what is going wrong.
Last five results (England first):
Super Series (2019)
13-28
European tour (2021)
43-12
56-15
RWC Final (2022)
31-34
WXV (2023)
33-12
